AAP or BJP… this time for whom will the path to power in Delhi emerge from the slums? Understand the political equation

There are about 1800 small and big slum settlements in Delhi. 3.5 lakh families live in these. Of these, there are 20 lakh voters. If we compare the population of entire Delhi, this figure is around 30%. That means every fourth voter in Delhi lives in slums. This slum voter also votes enthusiastically in elections. Whose government will be formed in Delhi? In a way, this is what the voters decide. In the last elections, it was the slum voters who gave the key to power to AAP. With the announcement of free electricity and water, Arvind Kejriwal so impressed the slum voters in 2013-14 that the Congress was wiped out in the state. BJP also suffered huge losses. Now in the 2025 elections, AAP, BJP and Congress have started courting the slum dwellers again.

Voting is to be held on all 70 seats of Delhi on 5th February. The results will come on 8th February. The current tenure of Delhi Assembly is ending on 23 February. Let us know in whose direction the slum voters of Delhi seem to be going this time? What are the election issues in slums? What promises have AAP and BJP made:-

Delhi Elections: AAP-BJP or Congress… whose boat will sail across Yamuna? Understand the arithmetic of 20 seats

Where are how many slum dwellers?
There are around 20 lakh slum voters in Delhi. 48% slum dwellers live in Central Delhi. Their stake in East Delhi is 23%. Their population in outer Delhi is 29%. The highest number of them is in South Delhi area. There are about 67,000 families in this area who live in slums or slums. At the same time, the number of such families in West Delhi Lok Sabha constituency is only around 22,000. There are more than 11% voters in the slums of Delhi.

Why did the battle of Delhi come to the slums?
Till the 2008 Delhi Assembly elections, it is believed that Congress had a one-sided penetration among the slum voters of Delhi. In 2013, Aam Aadmi Party broke into this vote bank for the first time. With this the Congress was wiped out. Since 2015, the slum voters have joined the Aam Aadmi Party. In the 2015 and 2020 assembly elections, AAP has dominated the slum-dominated seats. In a way, it was the slums that brought Arvind Kejriwal and his Aam Aadmi Party to power in Delhi in the 2020 elections. According to CSDS data, AAP got 61% slum votes. 33% slum votes went to BJP’s account. This time BJP has tried to tap the slum vote bank to gain power in Delhi.

Now political parties are also doing politics regarding slums. BJP has promised houses where there are slums. AAP is running a campaign to demolish slums if BJP wins. Whereas Congress claims that Sheila Dikshit’s government had built houses for the slum dwellers for the first time.

Kejriwal’s challenge to Amit Shah
On Saturday, Home Minister Amit Shah had said in the slum head conference that BJP will provide permanent houses to every slum dweller. Former CM Arvind Kejriwal challenged Amit Shah from Shakur Basti of Delhi on Sunday. Kejriwal said, “Modi government has demolished slums in many areas. If they build houses on the same land and give them to the slum dwellers, I will not contest the elections.”

Kejriwal also told BJP to withdraw the cases of slum dwellers whose cases are pending in the court. I guarantee not to contest elections.

Purvanchali voters dominate 20 seats in Delhi, who are they with, AAP or BJP? understand political calculations

Where there are slum voters, there is victory.
– There are slum voters on 29 seats in Central Delhi. Talking about the 2020 elections, AAP had won all the 29 slum-dominated seats of Central Delhi. AAP’s vote share was 56%. BJP’s vote share was 38%, but it did not get a single seat. Congress got 5% votes, but remained empty in terms of seats. 1% votes went to others’ account.

-There are slum voters on 20 seats in East Delhi. In the 2020 assembly elections, AAP had won 16 seats here. Vote share was 52%. BJP won 6 seats, vote share was 41%. Congress got 5% votes. Not a single seat was found. 2% votes went to others’ account.

-If we talk about outer Delhi, there are slum voters on 21 seats here. AAP’s strength was visible here too in the 2020 elections. AAP won 19 out of 21 seats. Vote share was 53%. BJP got 2 seats. Its vote share was 41%. Congress definitely got 4% votes, but did not get seats. 2% votes went to others.

Election status of 10 seats with highest number of slum voters in Delhi

What are the problems in slums?
-There are taps, but no water. Dependent on Jal Nigam tankers for water. There are problems with cleanliness. There is a pile of garbage.
-There is a risk of diseases due to accumulation of garbage.
-Lack of social security.
-Fear of bulldozing in kutcha houses in the name of encroachment.
-Lack of basic facilities in slums.
-Lack of school, hospital.

Why can Kejriwal get the support of slum voters?
-The poor voters living in these slums are actually the strength of Kejriwal. They have got a lot of benefits from the schemes like free electricity and water of Delhi Government.
-Women living in slums no longer have to pay fare for government buses. Because when he was CM, Kejriwal had given the gift of free travel to women.
– Delhi government has done a lot of reforms in government schools. Children living in slums take advantage of this.
-AAP government has provided free health facilities to the slum dwellers by building mohalla clinics.
-AAP feels that the situation can change with ‘increased anti-incumbency’. That’s why every big leader of the party is telling them about their welfare schemes and asking them to vote again.
-Every leader of Aam Aadmi Party is showing the same fear to these voters that if BJP comes, all these free schemes will be stopped. But if AAP comes to power again, many more such schemes will be launched.

BJP’s efforts also continue
-BJP leaders claim that the situation in Delhi has changed in the last one-two years. In such a situation, now the voters of Delhi want change. In the last Municipal Corporation elections, BJP was successful in getting the support of almost half of the voters of Delhi.
-BJP adjusted its strategy and started ‘Slum Expansion Scheme’ to establish its reach among slum voters. Later, BJP also got help from RSS in this. Their workers organized programs like night outs to interact with the slum dwellers.
-Now BJP has also promised houses where there are slums. In such a situation, BJP hopes that slum voters will lean towards it in the hope of permanent houses.

Congress is also struggling
Congress is also trying hard to woo the slum voters. That’s why Seelampur was chosen to launch Rahul Gandhi’s election campaign. There are slums and unauthorized colonies here. A large number of people living in these settlements are Dalits, backward classes and lower sections of the society. Therefore, this rally of Congress MP has been named ‘Jai Bapu, Jai Bhim, Jai Constitution’. The party has included its former MLA and Dalit face Veer Singh Dhingan and former AAP MLA Rajendra Gautam because of this vote bank.

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