Canberra:
After the end of Bashar al-Assad’s rule in Syria, bitter rivalry is once again emerging between the two old enemies of West Asia. Instead of Iran and Russia playing a dominant role in Syria, Israel and Turkey are looking for an opportunity to advance their conflicting national and regional security interests. Relations between the two countries have deteriorated rapidly in recent years under the leadership of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. This has created a situation of bitter conflict between the two countries regarding Syria.
A new rivalry is emerging
It is believed that Turkey has supported the attack led by the Syrian rebel group ‘Hayat Tahrir al-Sham’ group (HTS) to remove Assad from power, thereby betraying Syria’s allies Iran and Russia. Got it. Tehran believes that HTS would not have been able to do this without Turkey’s support.
It is now believed that after the end of Assad’s rule, Erdoğan is trying to establish himself as a leader for the Sunni Muslim world.
Turkey reopened its embassy in Damascus soon after the end of Assad’s rule and has also offered to help HTS govern Syria.
On the other hand, Israel took advantage of the absence of any rule in Syria to pursue its regional and security ambitions. It infiltrated Syria’s Golan Heights region and carried out massive bombings of its military properties across the country.
Turkey considered Israel’s action on Syria and the Golan Heights an attempt to grab land. Arab countries condemned Israel’s action and demanded respect for Syria’s sovereignty and territorial integrity.
Israel is concerned about Syria turning into a jihadist state and an apparent Islamist group taking power there. However, HTS leader Ahmed al-Sharaa (also known as Mohammed al-Golani) has indicated that he does not seek conflict with Israel. He also pledged that he would not allow any group to use Syria to attack Israel.
Two arch enemies:
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has long been supporting Palestine and strongly criticizing Israel. Tension between Israel and Turkey has increased significantly since the war with Hamas started in Gaza.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been targeting Erdoğan for the last several years. He called Erdoğan a “joke” and a “dictator” whose prisons house most journalists and people associated with politics. He also accused Erdoğan of committing “genocide” of the Kurdish people.
The United States, an ally of Turkey and Israel, has begun intensive diplomatic efforts to ensure that HTS steers Syria’s future in the right direction. He wants the government that came to power after the end of Assad’s regime to work according to America’s interests.
In the interests of America, HTS should support America’s Kurdish allies in North-East Syria and allow thousands of American soldiers to be deployed in the country. The US also wants HTS to continue preventing the Islamic State terrorist group from regaining strength.
The US will also have to manage the emerging geopolitical rivalry in Syria between Israel and Turkey.
Some observers have not ruled out the possibility of a military conflict between Israel and Turkey. This also does not mean that there is going to be a war between them. But the depth of their conflict of interests and mutual hostility has certainly reached a new level.
Iran’s defeat could prove costly:
For Iran, Assad’s removal would mean losing a key ally in its predominantly Shia “axis of resistance” against Israel and the United States. The Iranian regime has worked hard to build this gang as a fundamental part of its national and broader security over the past 45 years.
It has maintained Assad’s minority Alawite dictatorship over Syria’s Sunni majority at a cost of approximately US$30 billion since the popular uprising against Assad began in 2011.
With the sudden fall of the Assad regime, Iran is now introspecting on whether Iran’s regional strategy is strong or not and what role it will play in the new Syria.
