New Delhi:
Prime Minister Narendra Modi had announced on Independence Day on 15 August 2022 to transform the country from developing to developed by 2047. India has set out with high intentions to realize the dream of becoming a developed nation. The results of the steps taken to make the country self-reliant and to accelerate the pace of development are beginning to be seen. India’s influence has increased in many areas in the world. But, there is still a long way to go. Meanwhile, in an exclusive interview with NDTV, 16th Finance Commission Chairman Dr. Arvind Panagariya and former Finance Commission Chairman NK Singh told where India stands now and how long it has to go to become a developed country.
Per capita income will have to increase
According to the current definition of developed countries, per capita income should be between Rs 9.5 lakh to Rs 12 lakh annually. Arvind Panagariya said, “To become a developed India, our per capita income should be around 12 thousand 800 or 12 thousand 900 US dollars. If we take the per capita income figure of 2022-2023, So it was 2 thousand 500 dollars, to take it to 13 thousand and above we need about 7.6% GDP (Gross Domestic Product). Growth rate is needed.”
He said, “If we look at the GDP growth rate in real dollars, it has been 7.9%. Of course, our GDP growth rate in Indian rupees is a little lower, but when the rupee is measured in dollars, the value of the rupee keeps increasing. The growth that has taken place in the last 20 years, when measured in rupees, has increased despite the value of the rupee increasing in dollars.
Let us tell you that high per capita income alone is not the measure of development of a country. In 2021, Qatar’s per capita income was around 62 thousand dollars (about 50 lakh rupees) annually. Despite this, the UN considered it a developing country.
8.2% GDP growth is required
Panagariya explains, “India is thinking about the next 20-25 years. If we want to make the country a developed country by 2047, then we will have to increase the GDP growth rate. The increase in population is not going to be much till 2047. The country’s population will increase by a maximum of 0.5% or 0.6%. In such a situation, if the per capita income growth is 7.6% If we want, then we will have to bring about 8.2% GDP growth, which we have achieved in the last 20 years.
He said, “The reforms that have taken place in the country… be it GST, bankruptcy, infrastructure, digital infrastructure or AI front… these are very important. In the coming years, the government Whatever reforms will be done… If we look at all these together, then achieving the goal of becoming a developed India in 2047 is not a big deal, we have achieved 7.9% growth in the last 20 years, so we can take it forward. Can lead to 8.2% GDP growth.”
According to the World Bank report, India’s GDP in 2021 was $3.17 trillion. It was the sixth largest economy in the world. Currently India is the fifth economy in the world. By 2030, India is expected to become the world’s third largest economy after America and China with a GDP of $8.4 trillion.
Need to increase share in export market
Arvind Panagariya explains, “The economy we are currently operating has an export market of Rs 32 trillion. This is a very big export market in itself. If we want, we can increase our share in it. Our shares are currently Merchandise Export It can be increased to 4%. India’s share in it can be increased.
Demographic management is necessary
Former Finance Commission Chairman NK Singh said, “I believe that demographic management is necessary to become a developed India. Its lack is leading to increase in population. Considering the current age dependency ratio, it is necessary that the growth rate every year Along with creating new job opportunities, it is also a big challenge to generate employment in education, health and agriculture reforms. “It depends. If we reform keeping these things in focus, they can all come into coordination.”
What will be the country’s population by 2047?
According to Worldometer estimates, by the end of 2025 the country’s population will increase by 0.89%. India’s population will increase from 1.45 billion to 1.46 billion. Whereas by 2047 the country’s population is estimated to increase from 1.61 billion to 1.7 billion.
Need to go up in Human Development Index
India was ranked 134th among 193 countries in the Human Development Index of 2023/24 released by the United Nations Development Program (UNDP). The HDI score has improved over the last several years. Most developed countries have an HDI score of more than 0.80. In this respect, India needs to go further.
Will global affairs affect this goal of India?
Panagariya says, “I don’t think that global issues will have such a profound impact on India’s path to achieving its goal of becoming a developed country. Some things are not in our hands, but we can work on other things.” This includes increasing the share in the export market.”
He said, “Talking about America, there was a trade war between America and China during the government before Biden i.e. during the Trump era. After this, the fight between Russia and Ukraine started. Because of this, a lot of embargo was imposed on Russia. Still, the export market in the world economy was at a peak of 25 trillion dollars. Export(service export) was 6 trillion dollars.
Panagariya explains, “After Covid, despite these global issues, merchandise export increased to Rs 25 trillion. Service export also increased to Rs 7 trillion.”
Now know how many countries are in developing and developed categories?
-Such countries are kept in the category of developing, where industries are developing. Infrastructure is developing. Social and economic reforms are taking place. However, the lifestyle in these countries is very average. There is a lack of modern technology. The income of these countries is also low. But these countries are moving forward on the path of progress, albeit slowly. According to the United Nations, till 2020, 126 countries of the world were included in the list of developing countries. India is currently in this category.
-A country is considered developed when the income of the people of that country is high. The industry has developed. There should be strong infrastructure. Quality of life should be the best. America, Canada, Britain, France, Australia, Japan are such countries. In 2020, the UN considered 36 countries as developed countries. China is an upper-middle income country. But there are still challenges to develop in it. That is why the UN has currently placed China among the developing countries.
