In a major coup in the Middle East, Islamic rebels in Syria on Sunday announced the ouster of President Bashar al-Assad after taking control of Damascus. Due to this Assad was forced to flee. The Assad family’s decades of rule came to an end after more than 13 years of civil war. The fall of Bashar al-Assad is a major blow to Russia and Iran, which have major influence in the region. Both of them are key allies of Assad who supported him during critical periods in the conflict.
After the end of the Assad family’s five-decade rule in Syria, the balance of power in the region is going to take a new shape. Regional and global powers are emerging to fill the void left by this dramatic regime change. According to a CNN report, Western and Arab states, along with Israel, will try to reduce Iran’s influence in Syria, but they are unlikely to support a radical Islamic regime in place of Assad.
For Iran, Syria’s collapse could break its so-called axis of resistance, which includes its allied states and militias.
What was the reason for Assad’s destruction?
The rebels were reportedly encouraged to advance towards Aleppo after Israel weakened Hezbollah and Iran’s presence in the region last week. Hadi al-Bahra, a Syrian opposition leader representing anti-Assad groups, told Reuters news agency in an interview, “The Lebanon war and the reduction in Hezbollah forces have led to less support for (Assad’s) regime.”
He said Iran-backed militias also had fewer resources and that Russia provided less air cover to Assad’s forces because of its “Ukraine problem.”
What’s at stake?
iran
Iran has for years used Syria to expand its regional influence through proxy groups deployed in the predominantly Sunni nation. Tehran, along with its proxy Hezbollah, has helped Syrian government forces regain lost territory. The Islamic Republic also sent its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders to advise Assad’s forces, which proved helpful in keeping the president in power.
However, since the beginning of the Middle Eastern conflict in October last year, when Palestinian militant group Hamas attacked Israel, Hezbollah has withdrawn its forces from Syria to focus on its war with Israel. Iran is reportedly using supply routes into Syria to send weapons to its proxies fighting Israel. The destruction of Aleppo and potentially other cities along the Lebanese border could disrupt those routes. This may put Iran in a difficult situation. According to experts, losing Syria would be a “huge blow” for Iran.
“The investment that the Iranians have made in Syria is very significant,” Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute in Washington, D.C., told CNN. “It’s an important land bridge to Lebanon, but also the Iranians’ relationship with the Assad regime.” The alliance also continues in the history of the Islamic Republic.”
According to the report, Iran would like to use its proxy in the region as leverage in possible talks with the administration of incoming US President Donald Trump.
Parsi said, “If Iran loses too much of its position in the region, will they become too weak to negotiate? But if they retaliate to maintain that position as much as possible, will they avoid war?” Will we risk escalating it to a level where diplomacy will no longer be possible?”
lebanon
According to experts, events in Syria are sure to have an impact on Lebanon, where an agreement between Tehran’s proxy Hezbollah and Israel hangs in the balance. Hezbollah was a key player in preserving the Assad regime, but it has been weakened by the war with Israel.
If Syrian rebels succeed in reaching the Lebanese border, Hezbollah’s main logistics and supply route from Iran, which runs through Syria and Iraq, could be cut off, limiting Tehran’s proxy status in Lebanon.
“One of the reasons for what is happening in Syria today is the control of the Syrian-Lebanese borders to prevent the entry of strategic weapons into Lebanon,” Euronews quoted Antoine Habchi, a Lebanese MP from the Beqaa Valley, as saying.
Habchi said, “Turkey has tried to ensure that the Lebanese borders do not become a route for the transfer of strategic weapons through Syria. Even al-Assad does not control the route passing through his territory here , which is controlled by other groups and international powers, and especially Iran.”
Türkiye
Türkiye was trying to increase its influence with President Assad so as to strengthen its position in the region. This could have made it possible for him to gain more control over the Kurdish separatists located on the Türkiye-Syria border. Ankara represented the rebels in talks with Russia over the past decade, which ultimately resulted in a ceasefire agreement between the Syrian government and opposition forces in 2020.
Despite supporting opposition forces, Turkey has not ruled out rapprochement with Syria. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long opposed Kurdish nationalism. He has repeatedly said that his ultimate goal is to destroy the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a Kurdish militant and political group based in Turkey and Iraq. It has fought against the Turkish state for more than three decades. Another goal of Ankara is reportedly to maintain control over the oil-rich Syrian province in the country’s semi-autonomous northern regions.
Israel
The imbalance of power in Syria has also put Israel in a difficult situation. While President Assad considers Israel an enemy, he poses no direct threat to Tel Aviv and chose not to respond to regular Israeli attacks in Syria last year.
However, Assad’s regime allowed Iran to use its territory to supply weapons to Hezbollah in Lebanon. But Assad’s fall did not bring relief to Israel because the group leading the rebellion in Syria is Hayat Tahrir al Sham (HTS), whose leader Abu Muhammad al-Jolani is a former Al Qaeda fighter whose Islamist ideology is anti-Israel.
“Israel is caught between Iran, its proxies, and Syria’s Islamic rebels,” former Israeli intelligence official Avi Melamed told CNN. He said, “As far as Israel is concerned, no option is good, but for now Iran and its proxies have become weak, which is a good thing.”
The renewed conflict has given Tel Aviv the opportunity to resume attacks on targets in Syrian territory. According to Reuters report, suspected Israeli airstrikes took place in the Mazeh district of Damascus on Sunday.
According to the report, it is believed that Israeli planes also bombed Khalkhala Air Base in southern Syria. It was evacuated by the Syrian Army overnight. Regional security sources also told the agency that there were at least six attacks on the main air base north of Suwayda city. There is a large stockpile of rockets and missiles left by Syrian troops.
A source told Reuters that it appeared the aim of the attack was to prevent these weapons from falling into the hands of radical groups.
