The voters of Maharashtra and Mumbai put in some effort, but the voting did not become ‘historic’. By the way, it is no less a big thing that the maximum number of Marathi and Mumbai residents came out to vote in 30 years. While the highest turnout in 30 years was recorded across Maharashtra with 65 per cent turnout, Mumbai witnessed ‘historic voting’ with only 55 per cent turnout. Both the parties contesting the elections are showing themselves to be ‘excited’ due to this ‘record’ created by the voters, but the truth is that they too are losing sleep. Both the parties are engaged in analyzing whether the increase in vote percentage is in support of the ruling party or the result of anti-incumbency wave or is it a general effect of increase in the number of voters?
What is the effect of increased voting percentage?
By the way, if seen, this time there has been about 3.5 percent more voting as compared to the last assembly elections. Compared to 2019, this time the number of voters was 9.5 percent more. Therefore, the increase in voting percentage is not unexpected, but it can have a significant impact on the results on November 23. Especially on the tight seats. In the Lok Sabha elections, we saw that the difference in votes received by the two alliances was very minor (only 1.2 percent), but this resulted in a big difference in seats. In the Lok Sabha elections, Mahayuti (BJP, Shinde Sena, Ajit Pawar NCP) got a total of 42.71 percent votes, while Maha Vikas Aghadi (Congress, Uddhav Sena, Sharad Pawar NCP) got 43.91 percent. The voting percentage in the Lok Sabha elections was 61.39.
Who has dominance over Mumbai?
About 55 percent voting took place in Mumbai. This is the highest after 1995 (58.7 percent). While the voting figures are remarkable for Mumbai, the election results will also give a new direction to Mumbai’s politics. No matter whose side it is. The results will decide which faction of Shiv Sena will dominate Mumbai? And also, will any national party between BJP and Congress have political dominance over the country’s economic capital?
Mumbai is the first metropolitan city in the country where a local party was born talking about Mumbai and Maharashtra and that party established its political dominance over Mumbai by ending the hegemony of Congress. There was a time when Congress used to hold three-fourths of the three dozen seats in Mumbai. As the 1990s approached, Shiv Sena along with BJP ended its dominance. In 1995 and 2019, this alliance got 88.2 and 83.3 percent votes respectively. In 2004 and 2009, Congress along with NCP had established its political dominance in Mumbai, but it could not be maintained in 2014 and 2019. In the years 2004 and 2009, the Congress-NCP alliance got more than 55 percent votes. The 2024 elections will also decide whether the era of Congress-NCP alliance will return in Mumbai? By the way, this question is more challenging, because this time Congress is not in full alliance with NCP, the NCP with which it is in alliance is with Sharad Pawar’s faction of the party which has broken into two factions.
Which faction of Shiv Sena has how much influence?
The results coming on 23rd November will also decide who is the king of Mumbai? In the last two assembly elections, BJP has been the largest party in Mumbai. Even when BMC elections were held in 2017, BJP was still dominant because Shiv Sena had got only two seats more than it (total 84). That election was fought separately by BJP and Shiv Sena. She is fighting this assembly election in alliance with Shiv Sena (Shinde faction).
Shiv Sena started gaining dominance in terms of seat share in Mumbai from 1990. Except for the elections of 2004 and 2009, since then it has captured the maximum number of seats in almost every election. Even in 2019, its candidates had won four-fourth of the seats. But, this time the equation is different. This is the first assembly election after the breakup of Shiv Sena. The results to be declared on November 23 will also make it clear that the people of Mumbai give preference to any third party over the two factions of Shiv Sena or not?
Who is the real heir of Bal Thackeray’s Shiv Sena?
This is what happened in Mumbai. Now let us talk a little about Maharashtra. This time the fight in Maharashtra is mainly between just two faces – Uddhav Thackeray and Eknath Shinde. After the counting of votes on November 23, it will be known whether the people of Maharashtra consider Uddhav or Shinde as the real heir of Balasaheb Thackeray’s Shiv Sena?
What is the public’s stance on the politics of sabotage?
Between the two elections, there has been a split between the two major parties in Maharashtra politics. Shiv Sena was broken by Eknath Shinde and NCP by Ajit Pawar. By supporting both these rebels, BJP became a partner in power. Because of this, many people believe that BJP has also been involved behind the scenes in the sabotage. But what the public believes, we will know only on November 23. Because, in the results of Lok Sabha elections, even though the anti-BJP alliance got more seats, it got almost equal number of votes. In the Lok Sabha elections, the Congress led alliance got 43.9 percent votes and the BJP led alliance got 43.5 percent votes. Even though the difference in their vote share was only 0.4 percent, the difference in seat share was 27 percent. While NDA got 35.4 percent seats, India got 62.5 percent. In such a situation, it is difficult to say that the public rejected the politics of vandalism. Therefore, the picture on this issue will actually be clear only on November 23.
Tags: Devendra Fadnavis, Maha Vikas Aghadi, Maharashtra Elections, Sharad pawar, Uddhav Thackeray
FIRST PUBLISHED: November 22, 2024, 16:25 IST
