Share Market Outlook : This week investors lost lakhs of crores of rupees in the stock market. Sensex has fallen 4000 points this week. It has fallen from 82,133 to 78,041. Similarly, Nifty-50 has fallen from 24,768 to 23,587. At the same time, Nifty Bank index fell from 53,583 to 50,759, a decline of 2,824 points. This week, major benchmark indices have lost four weeks of gains. The market has fallen due to US Fed’s forecast of only two rate cuts in 2025 and selling by FIIs. Nifty-50 index has fallen below its 200-DEMA support. This may boost the morale of bears in the Indian stock market. Amidst this selling, the Nifty-50 index is close to its recent swing low of 23,250 points. Now the focus of investors is on whether the Nifty 50 index will maintain this support or the index will touch a new low.
Why is the market falling?
According to market experts, bears had a chance to push the Indian stock market into the red before Christmas due to the Federal Reserve taking a tough stance on rate cuts. After the Fed signals, the US dollar rose significantly and reached a two-year high. Due to this, buying started in the bond and currency markets. Due to this, FII selling was seen in the Indian market. In such a situation, DII did not have the confidence to buy at lower levels.
Why are DIIs not able to do bottom fishing?
According to stock market expert Dr. Ravi Singh, the global market has weakened after the Fed’s signals. Due to this the dollar has strengthened in the foreign currency market. This led to fresh buying in the bond and currency markets. FII selling proved more fatal due to uncertainties following a weak earnings season as DIIs did not appear confident. Looking forward to DII Budget 2025. Therefore he is expected to remain a silent player. The sharp fall in the rupee adds to macroeconomic concerns and adds to uncertainty over the recovery after a weak earnings season. These are some of the reasons why DIIs are not able to do bottom fishing (buying at low levels).
Will the decline continue?
Nifty-50 index closed below the important 200 period MA of 23,800 points. It broke its 4-week high by closing near 23,600 points. Nifty-50 index has shown short period correction from the zone of 24,850. Now the next important support is near the zone of 23,500 points. Below this the overall trend will become bearish. On the other hand, Bank Nifty index is near the important 200 period MA of 50,000 points. Below this there will be a trend week. Now the next big support is at the previous bottom, which is 49,800 points. Below this the trend will become bearish. After this the selling pressure may intensify further.
How will the market be on Monday?
According to Dr. Ravi, the Indian stock market may remain quite unstable on Monday. Nifty has slipped below the important zone of 200 SMA, so the next possible support can be seen around the recent swing lows, which is near 23,200 to 23,100. If it breaks then there will be a possibility of Nifty going towards 22,800. The strong bearish candle on the weekly charts definitely shows a turnaround move. As far as resistance is concerned, 23,800 to 24,000 can be seen as an intermediate hurdle. After this, resistance will be seen between 24,150 to 24,300.
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