Maharashtra Jharkhand Exit Polls: Who will be crowned in Maharashtra and Jharkhand elections? Will the Indian alliance win or will the NDA wipe them out? Today there is voting at both the places. However, India Alliance is missing in Maharashtra and Jharkhand elections and its smaller form Mahavikas Aghadi and Mahagathbandhan are in the fray. Nevertheless, with the victory of these two, the Indian alliance will consider itself victorious. Because Congress is included in both these alliances. Everyone wants to know who is winning, whether they are residents or voters of Maharashtra and Jharkhand or not. To satisfy this curiosity, exit polls will come as soon as voting ends today. Everyone will watch them with great interest. Even the leaders and political parties contesting elections. They know that winning or losing in the exit polls will not make any difference, but curiosity is such a thing that it is very difficult to control. This curiosity sometimes puts even the Election Commission in the dock. Because if the winning party in the exit poll loses, then it feels that something wrong has definitely happened with it, but if the losing party wins, then it calls it a victory of democracy. Before you form any opinion, know here how exit polls are conducted, when it started and by how many numbers have passed and failed so far…
first exit poll
The first exit poll was conducted in America in 1936. Then a survey of the presidential election was conducted in New York City. During this, the voters who came out of the booth after casting their vote were asked which candidate they had voted for. This exit poll was done by George Gallup and Claude Robinson. In this exit poll it was revealed that Franklin D. Roosevelt would win the election and the exit polls proved to be correct. After this the exit polls became popular. Exit polls were conducted in Britain in 1937 and France in 1938. Exit polls in India were started in 1996.
How was your journey in India?
The first exit poll in India was conducted by the Center for the Study of Developing Societies in 1996. The agency had predicted that BJP would form the government in the Lok Sabha elections. The results of Lok Sabha elections came according to the exit poll. After this, he was proved right in the 1998 Lok Sabha elections, but failed completely in 2004. All exit polls were predicting the return of Atal government’s NDA, but Congress’s UPA won. After this, exit polls failed in the 2009 elections also. Everyone was demanding the return of BJP, but then UPA won. In 2014, BJP’s victory was predicted in the exit polls, but no one was saying that BJP would form the government on its own. In the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the exit poll had predicted the BJP government and the results came as per the exit poll. Although, in this also BJP’s seats were shown decreasing, but BJP’s seats increased further in 2019. Then in 2024, many exit polls were taking BJP beyond 400, but BJP could not even cross 250. Yes, the government was definitely formed. In the case of Maharashtra, the exit polls proved almost right. In all exit polls, NDA was shown a setback in Maharashtra.
Status of 2019 Maharashtra elections
Similarly, 2015 Assembly elections of Bihar, 2020 Assembly elections of Delhi, 2023 Madhya Pradesh Assembly elections and the recent Haryana Assembly elections came exactly opposite to the exit polls. Talking about Maharashtra itself, in the ‘Poll of Exit Polls’ prepared by combining all the exit polls in the 2019 assembly elections, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance is seen getting 211 seats in Maharashtra. At the same time, the Congress-NCP alliance is expected to get 64 seats. Apart from this, 13 seats are expected to go to the account of others. Let us tell you that BJP-Shiv Sena Alliance had contested elections together in Maharashtra. At the same time, Congress had formed an alliance with Sharad Pawar’s party NCP before the elections. There are a total of 288 assembly seats in Maharashtra and the majority figure is 145. According to exit polls of India News and Pollstart, BJP-Shiv Sena alliance may get 194-203 seats. Whereas Congress and NCP alliance can get 79-84 seats. Other parties may get 6-10 seats. Apart from this, according to the survey of ABP News and C-Voters, BJP-Shiv Sena alliance can get 204 seats. Whereas Congress and NCP alliance can get 69 seats. Whereas other parties can get 15 seats. According to Times Now’s exit polls, BJP-Shiv Sena alliance will get a landslide victory and can get 230 seats in their account. Whereas the Congress and NCP alliance is expected to get only 48 seats. Whereas other parties can get 10 seats. However, when the results came, BJP won 104 seats out of total 288 assembly seats in Maharashtra.
2014 Maharashtra election status
In the 2014 Maharashtra Assembly elections, exit polls had claimed that BJP would become the largest party by winning approximately 117-131 seats in the 288-seat Assembly. Some exit polls said that the party would not be able to cross the majority mark on its own, and predicted a hung assembly if a post-poll alliance was not formed. Shiv Sena will be at second place with 66-77 seats and Congress will be at third place with 30-40 seats. NCP may lag behind its former ally with 24-34 seats. MNS will be the worst performing party with 4-10 seats. Another exit poll had predicted that the BJP would emerge as the largest party in Maharashtra with 129 seats, although it would fall short of the majority mark of 145 in the 288-seat assembly. Its former ally Shiv Sena will be the second largest party with 56 seats. According to the exit polls of Times Now and CVoter, Congress and NCP are going to stand third and fourth in the state with 43 and 36 seats respectively. When the results came in 2014, BJP had won 122 seats. Shiv Sena became the second largest party in the state by winning 63 seats. Congress was at third position by winning 42 seats and NCP was at fourth position by winning 41 seats. Looked at in this way, exit polls have been successful in giving an estimate most of the time, but at times they have also failed completely.
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There is a big flaw in the exit poll, do you remember this statement of the Election Commission?
