New Delhi:
There is a common discussion about Delhi. Why does it happen that BJP wins all the seven seats in the Lok Sabha elections? But loses the assembly elections. This happens because of voters who vote differently in Lok Sabha and Assembly elections. If so, then what effect will his change in stance have on the election results this time?
The voters of Delhi cast their votes differently in Lok Sabha elections and differently in Assembly elections. However, it has also been a trend that only the one who wins the Lok Sabha in Delhi forms the government at the Center and the one who wins the MCD does not win the Delhi Assembly elections. The reason behind this is that there is a large section of voters in Delhi who take their decision after watching the elections and not after watching the party. This can be called a swing voter. They play a big role in forming the government.
2014 Lok Sabha vs 2015 Assembly
BJP won all seven seats in the Lok Sabha elections and got 46 percent votes. At the same time, AAP’s account was not opened and it got 33 percent votes. Congress also failed to open its account and got 15 percent votes. But the situation changed in the 2015 assembly elections held a few months later. AAP won 67 out of 70 assembly seats and got 54 percent votes, which was 21 percent more than in the Lok Sabha elections. On the other hand, BJP’s vote percentage decreased by 14 percent, while Congress’s vote percentage decreased by 5 percent.
2019 Lok Sabha vs 2020 Assembly
BJP won all seven seats in the Lok Sabha elections and got 57 percent votes. AAP’s account was not opened, it got 18 percent votes, while Congress got 23 percent votes. But a few months later, the picture changed in the 2020 assembly elections. AAP won 62 out of 70 assembly seats and got 54 percent votes, which was 36 percent more than in the Lok Sabha elections. At the same time, BJP’s vote percentage decreased by 18 percent and Congress’s vote percentage decreased by 19 percent.
30 percent swing voters
Political analyst Amitabh Tiwari said that the voters of Delhi vote for one party in the Lok Sabha elections and for another party in the assembly elections and this trend has been seen in many other states also. This has also happened in Punjab, Karnataka, Himachal and Telangana. Voted for BJP or Congress in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and chose the Aam Aadmi Party in the Assembly. This means that these voters do not remain stable at one place. The interesting thing is that about 30 percent voters keep changing their stance during voting.
Swing voters can ‘play’
Amitabh Tiwari said that the voters who are going towards BJP and Aam Aadmi Party may mainly be from the general class. These are the voters who vote for Aam Aadmi Party on the basis of the schemes of Delhi Government, while support BJP on the schemes of the Centre. He also said that Aam Aadmi Party has very less core votes. If swing voters do not vote for Aam Aadmi Party, then difficulties may increase for the party.
Anti-incumbency against AAP at three levels
Amitabh Tiwari said that the party which wins the Lok Sabha or MCD elections in Delhi, often does not win the assembly elections. He also said that there are many issues in Delhi and despite being in MCD for the last 15 years, BJP had to face defeat. This time there is a big challenge before the Aam Aadmi Party. There is anti-incumbency against Aam Aadmi Party at three levels. First, Arvind Kejriwal has been accused of corruption. Secondly, there is anti-incumbency against the party’s MLAs also. Earlier, Aam Aadmi Party used to accuse BJP of not allowing them to work, but now it is not so, because Aam Aadmi Party is also in MCD.
Amitabh Tiwari said that there is anti-incumbency against Aam Aadmi Party at three levels. Firstly, Kejriwal was accused of corruption. At the same time, there is anti-incumbency against one MLA also. Earlier, AAP used to accuse BJP of not allowing the work to be done. But now it is not so. You are also in MCD.
