New Delhi:
The excitement for Delhi Assembly elections is in full swing. Political parties and their leaders are busy settling their equations. Aam Aadmi Party has been in power in Delhi since 2013. BJP and Congress are trying their best to remove him from power. At the same time, the Aam Aadmi Party is trying to retain its power. The issue of Ambedkar has heated up due to a statement by Home Minister Amit Shah in the winter session of Parliament. By maintaining this issue, political parties are trying to get the votes of Dalits in their favor. A total of 12 seats are reserved for Scheduled Castes in Delhi. Before delimitation the number of these seats was 13. Till 2008, Congress was the champion in Dalit politics in Delhi. But after the arrival of Aam Aadmi Party in 2013, everything changed. In that election, AAP made a major reshuffle by winning nine out of 12 seats. In the subsequent two elections, AAP won all the seats reserved for SCs. Let us know what strategy the political parties are working on on the seats reserved for SCs in this election.
Who will benefit from Amit Shah’s statement?
Home Minister Amit Shah’s statement has given an opportunity to the parties of Delhi. In this statement, all three parties involved in Delhi politics are seeing an opportunity for themselves. AAP tried to strengthen its position by raising this issue. At the same time, Congress is hopeful that by making this statement an issue, it can make a comeback in Delhi politics. At the same time, BJP tried to prove itself as the biggest well-wisher of Dalits by accusing Congress of insulting Ambedkar.
Congress is excited with its performance in the Lok Sabha elections. Political experts say that Dalit and minority votes had a major contribution in this victory of Congress. Congress wants to maintain this momentum. That is why she is raising the issue of Dalits at the national level. He feels that if the Dalits and minorities support him in Delhi, his victory drought can end. But the matter of concern for Congress is that even after the alliance with AAP in Delhi, it did not get any success. BJP had won all the seven seats of Delhi. But he is seeing a ray of hope from the victory in Punjab.
Congress hopes in Delhi
Congress had not made any compromise with AAP in Punjab. There is also your government there. In the Lok Sabha elections, Congress had benefited from the lack of agreement with AAP in Punjab. There Congress had won seven out of 13 seats. Even after forming the government, AAP was able to win only three seats. Since then, Congress leaders are considering it a mistake to support the AAP government in Delhi in 2013 and contest the 2024 Lok Sabha elections together. Therefore, even after pressure from central leaders, the local leaders of Delhi were not ready to compromise with AAP and are busy correcting their mistakes. In this election, AAP does not have any Dalit face like Kailash Gautam. Troubled by his neglect, Gautam had joined the Congress in September this year. After Raj Kumar Anand, Gautam was the second Dalit leader who distanced himself from AAP this year. Both the leaders had given only one reason for leaving AAP, that was ignoring the issue of Dalits.
Mathematics of SC seats in Delhi
If we look at the elections in Delhi from 1993 to 2020, Congress has won once and AAP twice has won all the seats reserved for SCs. In the 1993 elections, out of 13 reserved seats in Delhi, BJP won eight and Congress won five. Whereas in the 1998 elections, Congress had won all the 13 seats. In the 2003 elections, Congress won 11 seats and BJP won two seats. In the 2008 elections, Congress won nine seats, BJP won two and others won one seat. After the delimitation in 2009, the number of seats reserved for SC in Delhi reduced to 12. Aam Aadmi Party entered the 2013 assembly elections in Delhi. Congress was able to win only one seat in this election. BJP got two seats and AAP got 9 seats. After this, AAP won all the SC seats in the 2015 and 2020 elections.
If we look at this vote share, in the 1993 elections, Congress had got 35.68 percent votes and BJP had got 36.84 percent votes on the seats reserved for SCs. Whereas in 1998, Congress got 53.89 percent votes and BJP got 28.6 percent votes. In the 2003 elections, Congress got 50.36 percent votes and BJP got 28.6 percent votes. In the 2008 elections, Congress got 44.66 percent votes and BJP got 31.69 percent votes. After AAP’s entry into Delhi politics in 2014, Congress’s vote share on SC seats fell to 23.86 percent. Whereas BJP got 28.78 percent votes. Contesting elections for the first time, AAP won 34.56 percent votes.
Aam Aadmi Party’s dominance on SC seats
In the two elections held after this, BJP and Congress together could not get as many votes as AAP alone did. In the year 2015, Congress got 9.1 percent votes and BJP got 27.24 percent votes. AAP alone bagged 58.88 percent votes. Whereas in the 2020 elections, Congress could get only 3.97 percent votes. Whereas BJP got 33.76 percent votes, AAP managed to grab 57.7 percent votes. These figures show that in the last seven elections, BJP’s vote on seats reserved for SCs in Delhi has never fallen below double digits. During this period, it has got minimum 27.24 percent votes and maximum 36.84 percent votes. In these seven elections, BJP has formed the government once and Congress and AAP have formed the government three times each.
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