Turkey:
Neighboring Türkiye seems quite happy with the end of the Assad government in Syria. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan expressed happiness over the changed situation in Syria and said that Syria belongs only to the Syrian people along with their religious and sectarian communities. But what is the real reason for Türkiye’s happiness? Experts monitoring the situation in Syria say that with the fall of President Bashar al-Assad in neighboring Syria, Turkey has an opportunity to overthrow a historical rival and become more powerful in the region. Türkiye has been supporting a group of rebels. Now it is believed that Türkiye will emerge as the protector of Syria. At the same time, the ongoing tension in relations between Turkey and Russia may also reduce, because Turkey’s influence will increase in Damascus instead of Iran and Russia.
Türkiye’s important role in the end of Assad government
Paul Salem, vice president of the Middle East Institute think tank, said, ‘Rebels have ended more than five decades of rule of the Assad dynasty, this is also a big victory for Turkey, because its supported army has also been an important part of this war. . But Syria’s future remains in limbo after the Islamist-led coalition ousted Assad from power. In fact, with this victory also comes the responsibility of being part of a successful change. Let us tell you that for the last decade, Syria had become an arena in which wrestlers supported by many countries had entered. Türkiye is also one of these. Turkey has long supported rebel groups seeking to oust the Russia- and Iran-backed Bashar al-Assad government. The reason behind this was that Türkiye wanted a government in Syria that would ensure the security of its borders and stop the Kurdish groups.
Will Türkiye become the ‘new protector of Syria’?
Gonul Tol, director of the Middle East Institute’s Turkey program, says that on the foreign policy front, the fall of the Assad government will force Turkey to recalibrate its dealings with Iran and Russia, the ousted Syrian president’s key ally. He said the war had previously left Ankara ‘vulnerable’ to decisions taken in Moscow, with Russian bombing along the border in Syria’s northwest increasing fears of a new influx of refugees. But after the end of the Assad government, ‘Türkiye’s hand in relations with Russia will be strengthened.’ Similarly, Soner Cagapt, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, predicted that ‘Turkey’s influence will increase in Damascus, replacing Iran and Russia.’
Will Türkiye become the ‘new protector of Syria’?
Gonul Tol says that on the foreign policy front, the fall of the Assad government will force Turkey to adjust its dealings with Iran and Russia, the main ally of the ousted Syrian president. He said the war had previously left Ankara ‘vulnerable’ to decisions taken in Moscow, with Russian bombing along the border in Syria’s northwest increasing fears of a new influx of refugees. But after the end of the Assad government, ‘Türkiye’s hand in relations with Russia will be strengthened.’ Similarly, Soner Cagapt, senior fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, predicted that ‘Turkey’s influence will increase in Damascus, replacing Iran and Russia.’
Will Türkiye be able to play an important role in Syria?
Cagapt argued that Ankara should now “gain international recognition” and “drive out Russia and Iran” by helping the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), which led the rebel attack. But ‘if Türkiye becomes Syria’s new protector, it will not work,’ he said. However, in contrast, Sinem Adar of the Center for Applied Turkish Studies in Berlin said it was ‘too early to tell’ whether Turkey had indeed emerged a “winner” from Assad’s fall. “A lot depends on the relationship between local factions, especially HTS and the SDF,” Adar said, referring to the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces as well as “the relationship between HTS and Ankara.”
Refugees can return to Syria from Turkey
Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Sunday that Türkiye was ready to “guarantee security” and “heal Syria’s wounds.” Along with this, he said that there should now be a peaceful transfer of power in Syria. Three million (30 lakh) Syrians who fled the country’s bloody civil war on Turkish soil can now heave a sigh of relief. He also expressed hope that those refugees, whose presence has created strong anti-Syrian sentiment in Türkiye, can now return home. “The prospect of the return of Syrian refugees will increase support for President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey,” said Gonul Tol, director of the Middle East Institute’s Turkey program.
In Syria, rebel groups captured the capital Damascus on Sunday. Rebel fighters appeared on government television channels. He announced the fall of Damascus and the end of the rule of President Bashar al-Assad. After this there were reports of Assad fleeing the country. The head of Syria’s largest rebel group has come forward for the first time since the fall of Assad, calling it a ‘victory for the Islamic nation’. At the same time, Russia’s government news agencies have reported that Syria’s deposed President Bashar al-Assad and his family are in Moscow and have been given asylum. After the fall of the Assad government, a large number of citizens took to the streets and started waving the ‘revolution flag’. This is an old flag that was used in Syria before the rule of Hafez al-Assad, Bashar al-Assad’s late father. Bashar al-Assad, 59, took power in 2000 after the death of his father Hafez al-Assad. Al Assad was ruling the country since 1971.
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