IND vs AUS, World Test Championship 2025 Final Scenario: The final of the World Test Championship has now reached a very exciting turn, in the Border-Gavaskar Trophy tournament being played between Team India and Australia, both the teams are currently tied at 1-1 in the five-match series, on the other hand South Africa is just one step away from entering the final of the World Test Championship after defeating Sri Lanka in the second Test.
According to ESPNcricinfo, with 10 Tests remaining in the current World Test Championship (WTC 2025) cycle, several teams are vying for a place in the top two, although no team is guaranteed a spot yet. South Africa, which is topping the table with 63.33 percent, has to play two home matches against Pakistan. They are in a strong position after recently winning the series 2-0 against Sri Lanka.
To secure a place in the final, they will have to win only one of their upcoming Test matches against Pakistan. A 1-1 series result will take their percentage to 61.11, and only India or Australia will be in a position to surpass them. If both Tests are drawn, South Africa will finish at 58.33 per cent. In such a situation, India will have to beat Australia 3-2, and Australia will have to win both the Tests in Sri Lanka to overtake South Africa. If South Africa loses the series 1–0, they will be dependent on Australia not winning more than two of their remaining five Tests or India not winning more than one of their remaining three Tests in Australia.
Sri Lanka, who are currently at 45.45 per cent, have two home matches left against Australia. Even if they win both the Tests, they will only be able to reach 53.85 per cent, and that will depend on other results. Either South Africa, India or Australia can exceed this percentage. For both teams to be below 53.85 percent, Australia would have to win their series against India 2-1 and draw two, and South Africa would have to lose both Tests against Pakistan.
The Indian team, whose percentage is 57.29, has three Test matches left against Australia. To book a place in the final, they need two wins and a draw, which would take them to 60.53 per cent, which would be at least second behind South Africa. If India wins the series 3-2, they will finish at 58.77 per cent, and if Australia wins 1-0 against Sri Lanka, they could still finish below them. However, if India loses the series 2-3, they will finish at 53.51 per cent, leaving Australia, Sri Lanka and South Africa ahead of them. In this case, India would need South Africa to lose both Tests against Pakistan and hope that Australia gets at least a draw in Sri Lanka.
Australia, standing at 60.71 percent, has three home Tests left against India and two in Sri Lanka. To secure a place in the final, they need two wins out of their three Tests against India. Even if they lose both the Tests in Sri Lanka, if they win the series against India 3-2, they will reach 55.26 percent, which is higher than India’s 53.51 percent and Sri Lanka’s 53.85 percent. If Australia loses 2-3, India’s percentage will be 58.77 and then Australia will have to win both the Tests in Sri Lanka to overtake India. Alternatively, they have to hope that South Africa do not play more than one draw against Pakistan, which would leave South Africa at 55.56 per cent, a figure which Australia can surpass with a win and a draw in Sri Lanka.
Pakistan, currently at 33.33 per cent, have a very slim mathematical chance of qualifying provided South Africa shed one over-rate point. Even with four wins from their remaining four matches, Pakistan will finish at 52.38 per cent, slightly lower than South Africa’s 52.78 per cent. If South Africa loses a game, they will drop to 52.08 percent. With many other results going in their favour, it is mathematically possible for Pakistan to finish second behind Australia or India. However, their chances are very less. New Zealand, England, Bangladesh and West Indies are out of the race for a place in the final.
