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Sunday, February 16, 2025

Delhi’s Ran: AAP’s four or BJP opportunity … know from election pundits, how much power is there


New Delhi :

Promotion has come to an end on Delhi Assembly Elections. Now the biggest question is whether the Aam Aadmi Party, which is forming the government in the last three elections, will be able to hit the boundary? Or is there a wind of change in Delhi this time? Also, the question is being asked whether the BJP will benefit from the concession in tax during the general budget and whether the party will be able to end the 26 -year -old exile in Delhi. After all, everyone is restless to know who has so much power in the Rann of Delhi.

In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won the seven seats in Delhi and got 46 percent of the votes. The account of Aam Aadmi Party and Congress did not open in this election. However, the Aam Aadmi Party got 33 percent votes and Congress got 15 percent votes. However, the game was completely overturned in the 201 Delhi Assembly elections held a few months later. AAP won 67 out of 70 assembly seats and got 54 percent of the votes. The AAP votes increased by 21 percent as compared to the Lok Sabha elections. At the same time, BJP’s vote declined by 14 percent and Congress’s vote 5 percent.

Then the swing will be swing or will the wind upside down?

This game of swing votes was also seen in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections and 2020 assembly elections. In the Lok Sabha elections in 2024, the BJP again won all the seven seats. Now the 2025 assembly elections are in front and the question is whether this time will swing again or the wind will flow the opposite?

If the BJP cuts 5 percent of the AAP votes, then AAP seats will be reduced from 62 to 46, while the BJP will increase from 8 to 24, but if the Congress also improved its performance and it also cut 5 percent of the votes. So you will be reduced to 31 seats and BJP will get 39 seats, even if the Congress does not get a single seat. If both Congress and BJP cut 7.5 percent of AAP votes, then you will be reduced to 17 seats and BJP will get 53 seats.

What do electoral pundits say?

The Aam Aadmi Party is to face three -time anti -incumbency and for the first time, allegations of corruption are so openly on it. For the first time, he has to answer about the bungalow filled with glory. Of course he is also an attacker and has a big support base, but the question is, will the wind change this time? NDTV discussed with four election pundits about this.

Sanjay Kumar’s assessment

Director Sanjay Kumar said that the election of 2025 seems to be very different. The Aam Aadmi Party’s hold in the 2020 election was strong. He won 62 seats and this time does not appear to be happening. He also said that this is a bipolar election. Even though the Congress is in the fray, there is a tough fight between the BJP and the Aam Aadmi Party in this election. He also said that in this match, the Aam Aadmi Party appears two steps ahead.

He said that I do not consider this budget as a game changer. Explaining his point, he said that there is a big discussion that this budget is for the middle class, but there is also a big discussion about how many percent of the people will benefit. If you keep it on the edge once, then a perception is made that the middle class is being benefited greatly. That is why this thing seems to be going in favor of BJP, but I do not consider it to be a game changer because the middle class vote of Delhi was already going to go in favor of BJP. There will be a big change in it, I do not believe that.

Assessment of Yashwant Deshmukh

Yashwant Deshmukh, the founder-director of C. Voter, said that it is absolutely correct that there is a thorn in Delhi. The reason for this is that Delhi has an anti -incumbency of 10 years, it is difficult to remove it. Also said that a big difference is that the anti -corruption cruser’s high moral ground was riding the Aam Aadmi Party riding somewhere. He has suffered losses, but one of his advantages is that now he is contesting elections on his work. He said that he has suffered the loss of image in the form of a middle class, but as governance he has created a loyal vote bank as poor-dalit and minority, which is still firm. They have made it through free electricity-water and similar schemes.

He said that Aam Aadmi Party leader Arvind Kejriwal was in a popular rating of 60-62 in our tracker five years ago, he has come down to a rating of 46-47 today. It seems that there has been a difference of 15 percent, but it is necessary to see that after Kejriwal, the next leader is named by Manoj Tiwari, who has not been able to get more than 15 percent in the tracker.

At the same time, he said that this time the BJP is contesting a strong election and after the budget he has given, now the election of Delhi will be elected. On the one hand, there is a vote bank of the low income group and Dalit-Ambassador, how much vote is being taken to the Aam Aadmi Party polling booth, this is a big question. On the other hand, the middle class is a section of the upper cast-OBC, how big BJP or Sangh can take with them. In recent elections, whether it is Maharashtra or Haryana, BJP, the BJP has reversed two elections in the name of the organization. Therefore, Aam Aadmi Party and Kejriwal need to be vigilant.

Assessment of Pradeep Gupta

Pradeep Gupta, chairman and MD of Axis My India, said that this election of Delhi is such that as much as the castes, women-men and age groups of Delhi are seen behaving differently.

He said that this time Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seen in these elections, on the other hand Arvind Kejriwal is seen. Both are veteran personality. Usually one election has a veteran personality and the other is being searched, but this time it is a big difference.

He said that this time on Wednesday, voting has been kept that more and more voting should be held. It will be special to see which section has voted in large numbers.

Assessment of Akshat Goyal

Dhruv Research director Akshat Goyal said that this time the nearest elections are being seen, which we did not see in 2015 and 2020. Both of them were unilaterally unilaterally. In this election, there is a tough fight between the Aam Aadmi Party and the BJP. We are also seeing the rise of Congress in some seats.

He said that it has to be seen how men are voting and how women are voting. We have seen in the past how much women can vote for a party than men. This election will depend on it only. If male voters convene women not to vote separately, vote with us, then this election will be unilaterally. If men go to one party and women go to another party, then this election will be of thorn.

What did the expert say on the split seat?

In the Lok Sabha elections, the BJP wins in Delhi and gets a tremendous vote, but after six months it suddenly decreases in the assembly elections. Regarding this, Yashwant Deshmukh, founder-director of C. Voter, said that it came due to split vote. He said that the number of split votes in India is increasing and there is no example of this bigger than Delhi in India. He said that split vote means that on the basis of which such people are elections, on the basis of which level, people decide which party and which leader we have to vote. Today, there is a third of Delhi who is a fan of both Narendra Modi and Arvind Kejriwal. Which considers both of them as its leader.


(Tagstotranslate) Delhi Assembly Elections (T) Political Analysts (T) Political Analysts Assessment on Delhi Elections (T) Delhi Elections (T) BJP (T) BJP (T) Aam Aadmi Party (T) YSTS on Delhi Elections (T ) Delhi & zwj; Lee Assembly Elections (T) Assessment of Political Worlds & Zwj; LESS

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Sonu Kumar
Sonu Kumarhttp://newstiger.in
Stay up-to-date with Sonu Ji, who brings you fresh takes on breaking news, technology, and cultural trends. Committed to reliable reporting, Sonu Ji delivers stories that are both informative and engaging.

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