New Delhi:
After the end of the rule of President Bashar Al-Assad in Syria, there is a lot of uncertainty about the future of the country. The rule of Bashar al-Assad, who ruled Syria for a long time, came to an end after attacks led by a group called Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Bashar al-Assad came to power in 2000, succeeding his father Hafez al-Assad. Hafez al-Assad had ruled Syria with an iron fist for nearly three decades. Initially there were hopes that Bashar would bring reform and openness to Syria. However, these hopes were soon dashed and he continued his father’s rule.
Ashad failed to handle the protests
Assad’s failure to handle the 2011 protests plunged Syria into civil war. More than five lakh people were killed, six lakh became refugees. However, Assad escaped the divided rebels during that time due to the military support of Russia and Iran. During this time he got the support of Russian Air Force and Hezbollah fighters.
However, the effect of their dependence on Iran and Russia was that when Russia became busy in the war in Ukraine and Iran was also caught in the conflict with Israel, meanwhile the rebels strongly attacked Assad’s regime. In this attack, the rebels captured major cities like Aleppo, Hama and Homs and reached Damascus.
Who will take command of Syria?
Rebel leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani, now known by his real name Ahmed al-Shara, has called for the immediate formation of a committee to transfer power. In a statement, al-Jalali expressed his willingness to cooperate with any leadership elected by the Syrian people. Despite these efforts, however, HTS has a history of being linked to al-Qaeda. In such a situation, there are doubts about its ability to govern.
Russia has suffered a big blow
Assad’s fall is a major blow to Russian influence in the Middle East. Since its intervention in 2015, Russia has been the regime’s staunchest supporter, maintaining strategic assets such as the Tartus naval facility and Hmeimim airbase in Latakia. These bases are considered very important for the balance of power in the Mediterranean Sea and Africa. However, Russia’s military attention is currently focused on the war in Ukraine. The loss of control in Syria is also raising questions about Moscow’s ability to protect its strategic positions in the region.
Iran’s situation is weakening
For Iran, Assad’s departure is being seen as a big blow. Due to geographically weak control over Syria, it may have to face problems. Syria connects Iran to Lebanon. This network has been important for arms transfer and increasing influence in the region. Iran has suffered setbacks due to its recent conflict with Israel and the weakening of Hezbollah under pressure from Iran’s proxies in Yemen and Iraq. Now he may have to consider changing his strategy.
What is Türkiye’s role?
Turkey’s role in Assad’s fall is not yet clear, while President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has long advocated a diplomatic solution to the Syrian conflict. But Assad consistently rejected his call. More than three million Syrian refugees are in Turkey. Türkiye wants their return home.
What is Israel’s strategic thinking?
For Israel, the fall of the Assad regime brings both opportunities and risks. The fall of Iran’s key ally in Syria has severed its connections with Hezbollah. But the rise of HTS as a major power has brought new uncertainties. The Israeli military is also wary of Iran and Hezbollah taking advantage of the chaos to acquire advanced weaponry.
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While Syrian President Assad fled to Russia, America started bombing ISIS.
